Strong opposition to raising the pension age

Experts have warned that deciding whether to increase the UK's state pension age could be a significant challenge for Sir Keir Starmer if Labour wins the general election.

A YouGov poll for the International Longevity Centre (ILC) reveals that 72% of voters oppose raising the state pension age. Opposition is particularly strong among Labour supporters at 80%, with majorities of Conservative (68%) and Liberal Democrat (71%) voters also sharing this sentiment.

Planned increase and further recommendations

The UK's state pension age is set to increase from 66 to 67 between 2026 and 2028. Two government-commissioned reviews have recommended advancing the planned rise to 68, originally planned for 2044 to 2046, to address the escalating costs of the UK's ageing population. In 2023, Conservative Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride stated that the next government would need to decide on this increase, deferring his decision to a review in 2026.

The challenge for Labour

David Sinclair, chief executive of the ILC, describes the pension age issue as a potential "banana skin" for Labour, as the party faces pressure from pensioner groups and the Unite union to reduce it back to 65.

The cost of state pensions and related benefits is projected to rise by £45 billion by 2050, and the proportion of GDP spent on pensions increasing from 4.8% to 8.1% by 2071. The ILC estimates the pension age might need to increase to 70 or 71 by 2050 to maintain the current working-to-retired population ratio.

Ros Altmann, a former Tory pension minister, argues that raising the pension age to 69 or higher is "unconscionable", recognising that such an increase disproportionately affects the poorest and sickest in society. She acknowledges that Labour might resist the increase to 68 if alternative cost controls can be established.

Labour's position

Labour has not made any specific commitments regarding changes to the pension age. Instead, the party has promised a "review of the pension landscape" in its manifesto. They have also pledged to uphold the triple lock, which guarantees that pension payments will increase in line with inflation, average earnings, or by 2.5%, depending on which is highest. 

Conflicting voter priorities

The YouGov survey also reveals strong voter support (74%) for increasing state pension payments, with increased spending on the NHS and social care emerging as the top priorities for voters. Yet 63% of Labour voters believe the government spends too little on younger generations, highlighting the complex balancing act the next government faces.

Sinclair emphasises "[t]the next Government will need to be bold, brave and honest about the implications of population ageing, which will mean making some unpopular decisions".